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Wednesday, November 26, 2008

TECHNICALS FOR NYMEX TRADING

NOV 26 WEDNESDAY

TRADING LEVELS FOR EVENING TRADING

SHORT TERM TREND: BEARISH

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

S1 RS 2560 , S2 RS 2500 , S3 RS 2440

R1 RS 2630 , R2 RS 2680 , R3 RS 2740

UPDATES ON NOV 26 2008

NOV 26 WEDNESDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

S1 RS 2530 , S2 RS 2485 , S3 RS 2440

R1 RS 2630 , R2 RS 2680 , R3 RS 2710

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

TECHNICALS FOR NYMEX TRADE

NOV 25 TUESDAY

TRADING LEVELS FOR NYMEX EVENING TRADE

SHORT TERM TREND : SIDEWAYS

LONG TERM TREND: BEARISH

S1 RS 2630 , S2 RS 2560 , S3 RS 2500

R1 RS 2730 , R2 RS 2790 , R3 RS 2840


UPDATES ON NOV 25 2008

NOV 25 TUESDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : SIDEWAYS

LONG TERM TREND: BEARISH

S1 RS 2685 , S2 RS 2630 , S3 RS 2590

R1 RS 2780 , R2 RS 2825 , R3 RS 2875

Crude oil prices ended higher on Friday as pre

week and short covering and rising equity markets

supported oil prices.

In volatile trading , Crude oil for January delivery

was up 1.03 % to close at $ 49.93 a barrel on the

Nymex.

During last week prices touched a lowest level

since May 2005 on Thursday on sagging equity

markets and a firmer dollar.

More than expected rise in oil inventory also pulled

oil prices lower.

Crude oil prices are expected to remain range bound in

the short term as traders will be awaiting the upcoming

meeting of OPEC.

For MCX contract the immediete and crucial support is seen

at 2490 /2425.

Resistence is seen at Rs 2630 / 2690.


Monday, November 24, 2008

UPDATE ON NOV 24 2008

NOV 24 MONDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

S1 RS 2510 , S2 RS 2475 ,S3 RS 2420

R1 RS 2590 , R2 RS 2640 , R3 RS 2690

SELL AT RESISTENCE.

Prices continued to decline over the week

with the front month WTI contract falling to its

lowest levels since May 2005.

Demand conditions are weak and output cuts

have not yet began to impact.

In the short term prices will be influenced by demand

issues and financial / economic data.

How ever in the new year continued out put cuts

may result in tightening supplies.

Not withsatnading current weakness , far forward

prices continue to stay firm , suggesting that the

market expects prices to stay firm , suggesting

that the market expects prices to improve going

forward.

For MCX Dec contract the immediate and crucial

support is seen at Rs 2500/ 2440 and resistence is

seen at Rs 2620 / 2680.

On intra day basis prices are expected to trade sideways

to down.

Friday, November 21, 2008

UPDATES

TECHNICALS FOR NOVEMBER 21

MCX DECEMBER CRUDE OIL

SHORT TERM : BEARISH

LONG TERM : BEARISH

SUPPORTS : 2610, 2565, 2523

RESISTANCES : 2710, 2756, 2790

STAY SHORT AT RESISTANCES

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Market Alert on Nov 20 2008 Thursday

Trading range for this session

Crude Oil Rs 2740 to 2680.

UPDATES

UPDATES FOR NOVEMBER 19

Crude oil fell for a fifth day, approaching $50 a barrel, as

the contracting world economy increases concerns that

demand for fuels will slow.

U.S. fuel use during the past four weeks averaged 19.1 million

barrels a day, down 7 percent from a year ago, an Energy

Department report said yesterday. Equities declined with the

MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropping for a fourth day while the

Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday fell to the lowest

since March 2003.

``The big picture remains one of weak demand, economic concerns

and a falling market,'' said Antoine Halff, head of energy research

at Newedge USA LLC in New York, in an interview with Bloomberg

Television. ``U.S. demand has really been collapsing and dragging

the OECD demand as well and we might end up with a contraction

in global demand growth for the year.''

Crude oil for December delivery fell as much as 97 cents, or

1.8 percent, to $52.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

It was at $52.75 a barrel at 2:36 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday,

futures touched $52.79 a barrel, the lowest since Jan. 23, 2007.

UPDATES

TECHNICALS FOR NNOVEMBER 20

MCX DECEMBER CRUDE OIL

SHORT TERM : BEARISH

LONG TERM : BEARISH

SUPPORTS : 2740, 2685

RESISTANCES : 2840, 2880

STAY SHORT AT RESISTANCES

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

UPDATES ON NOV 18 2008

NOV 18 TUESDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : SIDEWAYS

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

S1 RS 2820 , S2 RS 2765

R1 RS 2945 , R2 RS 2980

Crude Oil Rises in New York After U.S. Industrial

Output Climbs .

Crude oil rose from a 21-month low after U.S.

industrial production gained, increasing

expectations that fuel demand may improve in the

world's largest consumer.

Crude oil for December delivery rose as much as 44 cents, or

0.8 percent, to $55.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile

Exchange. It was at $55.33 a barrel at 12:12 p.m. Singapore

time. Prices have tumbled 63 percent since reaching a record

$147.27 on July 11.

Oil closed yesterday at its lowest since Jan. 29, 2007, after the

economy in Japan, the world's third-biggest oil- consuming

country, contracted 0.4 percent in the third quarter. China

National Petroleum Corp. said yesterday demand has fallen

since September because of credit-market turmoil.

Crude oil stockpiles probably climbed 1 million barrels in the

week ended Nov. 14 from 311.9 million the week before, according

to the median of nine analyst estimates before an Energy

Department report this week.

Brent crude oil for January settlement was at $52.40 a barrel,

up 9 cents, on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange at

12:01 p.m. Singapore time. It declined yesterday $1.93,

or 3.6 percent, to settle at $52.31 a barrel.



Monday, November 17, 2008

UPDATES ON NOV 17 2008

NOV 17 MONDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

S1 RS 2825 , S2 RS 2780

R1 RS 2925 , R2 RS 2975

Crude Oil Falls as Global Slowdown Cuts Demand in China, Japan .

Oil fell for a second day in New York as Japan entered its

first recession since 2001 and China's largest crude

producer said demand has contracted ``sharply.''

Japan's economy contracted 0.4 percent in the September

quarter, official figures today showed. China National

Petroleum Corp., the biggest producer in the world's

second-largest oil consumer, said demand has declined

since September because of the global credit crisis.

OPEC may wait until December to cut output, the

group's president said.

Crude oil for December delivery dropped as much as $1.44, or

2.5 percent, to $55.60 a barrel in after-hours electronic

trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at

$56.08 at 1:20 p.m. in Singapore.

The contract slumped 2.1 percent to settle at $57.04 on

Nov. 14, having touched $54.67 the previous day, the lowest

since Jan. 30, 2007. Prices declined 6.6 percent last week

as world equity markets dropped, Germany entered its

worst recession in 12 years and U.S. retail sales fell for

a fourth straight month.

Japan, the world's second-largest crude importer, had been

expected by economists to avoid recession and record growth

of 0.1 percent in the September quarter. Japan used 5.1 million

barrels a day in 2007, according to the BP Statistical Review of

Energy. China used 7.9 million barrels a day.

Brent crude oil for January settlement dropped as much as

99 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $53.25 a barrel on London's ICE

Futures Europe exchange. It was at $53.89 a barrel at 1:10

p.m. Singapore time. The contract fell 3.6 percent to $54.24

a barrel on Nov. 14.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

UPDATES

UPDATE FOR WEEK ENDING 14 NOVEMBER

Crude oil fell more than $1 a barrel, and gasoline tumbled,

as the global economic slowdown cut demand in the largest

energy-consuming countries.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., supplier of more than

half the fuel to the Asian nation, is slashing processing rates

by 10 percent from July’s record. U.S. retail sales in October

dropped the most on record and Europe fell into its first recession in 15 years, reports showed today.
“This is a headline-driven market and that’s giving the sellers

plenty of ammunition,” said Peter Beutel, president of energy

consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut.

“Everyone is looking for recessionary numbers. The retail

numbers were even worse than expected.”


Crude oil for December delivery declined $1.20, or 2.1 percent,

to settle at $57.04 a barrel at 2:42 p.m. on the New York

Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $54.67 yesterday, the

lowest since Jan. 30, 2007. Prices, which have tumbled 61

percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11, declined

6.6 percent this week.


Gasoline for December delivery fell 6.33 cents, or 4.9 percent,

to $1.2391 a gallon in New York, the lowest settlement price

since the contract was introduced in October 2005.

China Petroleum, or Sinopec, will process about 15 million metric

tons a month, or 3.65 million barrels a day, starting in

November, said three refinery officials, who declined to be

named because of internal rules. China is the world’s

second-biggest oil-consuming country.


Falling Sales

Retail sales in the U.S. dropped 2.8 percent in October, the

fourth consecutive drop and the biggest since records began

in 1992, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.

Purchases excluding automobiles also posted their worst

performance. The U.S. consumes 24 percent of the world’s oil.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, supplier

of 40 percent of the world’s oil, is “very likely” to recommend

a production cut at the end of this month, Iran’s OPEC

governor, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, told the country’s state-run

Mehr news agency. Iran is OPEC’s second-biggest oil producer.

OPEC will hold a meeting on Nov. 29 in Cairo, according to a

spokesman at the group’s Vienna headquarters. It will coincide

with a gathering of Arab oil ministers scheduled for that day.

‘Significant Lag’

“OPEC may well announce additional production cuts, but

there will be a significant lag effect, with any cuts coming well

into next year,” said Paul Crovo, a Philadelphia-based oil analyst

with PNC Capital Advisors. Compliance from members may

not be in line with announced reductions, producing a

“muted impact,” he said.

The group decided at a meeting in Vienna last month to lower

the production target for 11 of the group’s members by 1.5

million barrels a day, from 28.8 million barrels a day.


Brent crude oil for January settlement fell $2, or 3.6

percent, to settle at $54.24 a barrel on London’s ICE

Futures Europe exchange.

Friday, November 14, 2008

UPDATES

TECHNICALS FOR NOVEMBER 14

MCX NOVEMBER CRUDE OIL

SHORT TERM : BEARISH

LONG TERM BEARISH

SUPPORTS : 2865, 2810

RESISTANCES : 2945, 3010

SELL AT RESISTANCES

Thursday, November 13, 2008

UPDATES

TECHNICALS FOR NOVEMBER 13

MCX NOVEMBER CRUDE OIL

SHORT TERM : BEARISH

LONG TERM : BEARISH

SUPPORTS : 2910, 2865

RESISTANCES : 2975, 3010

SELL AT RESISTANCES

UPDATE

UPDATE AT 10 AM ON NOVEMBER 13

Crude oil fell to the lowest in 21 months on speculation

demand will decline further as the economies of the major

consuming nations contract.

U.S. gasoline purchases dropped 4.2 percent last week, the

29th consecutive week of decline, MasterCard Inc. reported

yesterday. Asian stocks slumped and China's industrial production

grew at the slowest pace in seven years.

Crude oil for December delivery declined as much as $1.13, or 2

percent, to $55.03 a barrel, and traded at $55.54 at 12:03 p.m.

Singapore time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier,

prices fell to $55.03 a barrel, the lowest since Jan. 30, 2007. Futures

have tumbled 62 percent from the record $147.27 on July 11.


Oil has also fallen on speculation that the International Energy

Agency will cut its global demand estimate today and the U.S.

will report that stockpiles gained.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

UPDATES ON NOV 12 2008

NOV 12 WEDNESDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

S1 RS 2842 , S2 RS 2800

R1 RS 2910 , R2 RS 2960

SELL AT RESISTENCE.

Oil Falls to Near 20-Month Low on Outlook for

Slower Demand .

Crude oil fell for a second day in New York, trading near a

20-month low, on speculation the International Energy

Agency will cut its 2009 oil-demand forecast because of

slowing economic growth.

Crude oil for December delivery declined as much as 78 cents,

or 1.3 percent, to $58.55 a barrel in after-hours electronic

trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at

$59.21 a barrel at 12:49 p.m. Singapore time.

Yesterday, oil lost $3.08, or 4.9 percent, to $59.33 a

barrel, the lowest settlement since March 20, 2007,

after earlier dropping as low as $58.32. Prices have

tumbled 60 percent since from a record $147.27

reached on July 11.

The price for oil futures for later delivery has risen against

those closer to immediate delivery, a situation known as

contango. The December 2013 contract has a $24.42

a barrel premium over the 2008 future. A month ago

it was $8.57 a barrel.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said that the credit crunch is

causing crude oil futures to be more expensive for long-

term than immediate delivery.

U.S. crude-oil supplies probably rose for a seventh week

as imports rebounded, a Bloomberg News survey of

analysts showed. Stockpiles probably increased

750,000 barrels in the week ended Nov. 7 from

311.9 million the week before, according to the

median of 12 analyst estimates before an Energy

Department report.

Brent crude oil for December settlement fell as much as'

36 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $55.35 a barrel on London's

ICE Futures Europe exchange and traded at $55.70 at

12:37 p.m. Singapore time. The contract yesterday

dropped $3.37, or 5.7 percent, to close at $55.71 a

barrel, the lowest settlement since Jan. 29, 2007.


Tuesday, November 11, 2008

TECHNICALS

TECHNICALS FOR NOVEMBER 11

MCX NEVEMBER CRUDE OIL

SHORT TERM : BEARISH

LONG TERM : BEARISH

SUPPORTS : 2835, 2756

RESISTANCES : 3025, 3070

SELL AT RESISTANCES

Monday, November 10, 2008

UPDATES

TECHNICALS FOR NOVEMBER 10

MCX NOVEMBER CRUDE

SHORT TERM : SIDEWAYS

LONGTERM: BEARISH

SUPPORTS : S1 2926, S2 2875

RESISTANCES : R1 3025, R2 3070

WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION

Friday, November 7, 2008

UPDATES

TECHNICALS AT 5 PM ON NOV 7

MCX CRUDE OIL NOVEMBER

SHORT TERM : BEARISH

LONG TERM : BEARISH

SUPPORTS ; 2960,, 2856

RESISTANCES ; 3040,, 3140

STAY SHORT AT RESISTANCES

UPDATES

UPDATES

PIVOTS FOR NOVEMBER 7

MCXNOVEMBER CRUDE OIL

SUPPORTS : S1 2915, S2 2856

RESISTANCES : R12985, R2 3040

STAY SHORT AT RESISTANCES

Thursday, November 6, 2008

UPDATES ON NOV 6 2008

NOV 6 THURSDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

S1 RS 3145 , S2 RS 3085

R1 RS 3230 , R2 RS 3370

STAY SHORT AT RESISTENCE.

Crude Oil Falls a Second Day as U.S. Fuel Consumption Slows .

Crude oil fell for a second day, extending yesterday's more

than 7 percent loss, on signs of slowing fuel demand after

a U.S. Energy Department report showed an unexpected

increase in gasoline inventories.

Gasoline supplies in the world's largest energy user rose

1.12 million barrels to 196.1 million barrels last week, the

report showed. A 650,000-barrel drop was forecast,

according to the median of 14 analysts surveyed by

Bloomberg News. Stockpiles of crude oil and distillate

fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel,

also climbed.

Crude oil for December delivery declined as much as 95 cents, or

1.5 percent, to $64.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile

Exchange. It was at $64.68 a barrel at 12:57 p.m. Singapore

time. Prices, which have tumbled 56 percent since reaching

a record $147.27 on July 11, are down 33 percent from a year

ago. Yesterday, futures plunged $5.23, or 7.4 percent, to

$65.30 a barrel, the biggest drop since Oct. 10.

Crude oil stockpiles climbed 54,000 barrels to 311.9 million

barrels in the week ended Oct. 31, the department said.

A 1 million-barrel gain was forecast. Imports dropped

365,000 barrels to 9.97 million barrels a day. The

department released its weekly report yesterday

in Washington.

Oil has also weakened as refiners' processing profits declined.

The profit from making gasoline in the U.S. was at minus

$5.04 a barrel and has been negative since Sept. 19.

Oil also declined because of concern that the U.S. economy

will continue to contract. Companies in the U.S. cut an

estimated 157,000 jobs in October, the most in almost

six years, a private report based on payroll data

showed yesterday.

The drop was larger than forecast and followed a revised

26,000 decrease in September that was bigger than

previously estimated, ADP Employer Services said.

The decline in employment was the biggest since

November 2002, when the U.S. was emerging from

a recession.

Brent crude oil for December settlement fell as much as 89

cents, or 1.4 percent, to $60.98 a barrel on London's ICE

Futures Europe exchange. It declined $4.57, or 6.9 percent,

to settle at $61.87 a barrel yesterday.

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

UPDATES ON NOV 5 2008

NOV 5 WEDNESDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : SIDEWAYS

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

S1 RS 3285 , S2 RS 3220

R1 RS 3385 , R2 RS 3460

WAIT FOR SUPPORT FOR FRESH LONGS.

Oil Falls as Investors Judge Gains Excessive; Gold Pares Gains .

Crude oil fell in New York as investors judged yesterday's

10 percent gain as excessive on signs of slowing fuel

demand after U.S. auto sales dropped to their lowest

in 17 years.

Crude oil for December delivery declined as much as $2.08,

or 3 percent, to $68.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile

Exchange. It was at $68.50 a barrel at 1:33 p.m. Singapore

time. Prices, which have tumbled 53 percent since reaching

a record $147.27 on July 11, are down 27 percent from

a year ago.

Futures rose $6.62, or 10 percent, to $70.53 a barrel

yesterday, the highest settlement since Oct. 21. It was

the biggest one-day gain since Sept. 22.

Oil prices were boosted by the biggest presidential- election

day rally in the U.S. stock markets in 24 years and the

fading dollar. The currency was little changed at $1.2870

per euro at 12:17 p.m. Singapore time after declining 2.6

percent yesterday to $1.2966 per euro.

OPEC decided at a meeting in Vienna last month to cut the

production target for 11 of the group's members by 1.5

million barrels a day, from 28.8 million barrels a day.

Brent crude oil for December settlement fell as much as

$2.04, or 3.1 percent, to $64.40 a barrel on London's ICE

Futures Europe exchange. It was at $64.40 a barrel at

1:33 p.m. Singapore time. The contract increased $5.96, or

9.9 percent, to settle at $66.44 a barrel yesterday, the

highest since Oct. 21

Oil inventories probably rose 1 million barrels from 311.9

million barrels in the week ended Oct. 24. Refinery use

probably rose to the highest since August.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

UPDATES ON NOV 4 2008

NOV 4 TUESDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

S1 RS 3125 , S2 RS 3065

R1 RS 3215 , R2 RS 3270

STAY SHORT AT RESISTENCE.

Oil Falls as U.S. Manufacturing Contracts, Curbing

Fuel Demand .

Crude oil fell for a second day after a report showed

manufacturing in the U.S. contracted in October at

the fastest pace in 26 years, signaling weaker fuel demand.

Oil has tumbled 57 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel

in July as the U.S. economy shrank in the third quarter by

the most since 2001. U.S. crude inventories probably rose

last week for a sixth week because of declining demand, a

Bloomberg News survey of analysts showed.

Crude oil for December delivery fell as much as 88 cents, or

1.4 percent, to $63.03 a barrel, and traded at $63.32 at

1:16 p.m. Singapore time on the New York Mercantile

Exchange. Prices are down 33 percent from a year ago.

Yesterday, futures lost $3.90, or 5.8 percent, to $63.91

a barrel, the biggest drop since Oct. 22. Oil futures

declined 33 percent in October, a monthly record, amid

a global economic slowdown. The previous record-price

drop was in February 1986.

Brent crude oil for December settlement on London's ICE

Futures Europe exchange fell as much as 88 cents, or 1.5

percent, to $59.60 a barrel. It traded at $59.67 at 1:16 p.m.

Singapore time.



Monday, November 3, 2008

UPDATES ON NOV 3 2008

NOV 3 MONDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : SIDEWAYS

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

S1 RS 3275 , S2 RS 3210

R1 RS 3370 , R2 RS 3410

Oil Rises for a Second Day as Interest Rate Cuts to

Spur Growth .

Crude oil rose in New York on signs fuel demand will increase

after the U.S., India and China cut interest rates to prop up

economic growth and amid speculation OPEC will cut

output for a second time by year end.

Oil climbed 5.7 percent last week in the first gain in five

weeks. India on Nov. 1 lowered its benchmark repurchase

rate for the second time in two weeks, following The

People's Bank of China, which cut its key rate on Oct. 29.

OPEC is due to meet in Algeria on Dec. 17.

Crude oil for December delivery gained as much as $1.16,

or 1.7 percent, to $68.97 a barrel in after-hours electronic

trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at

$68.91 a barrel at 1:10 p.m. Singapore time, bringing the

gains in the past two days to 4.5 percent.

Brent crude oil for December settlement gained as much as

$1.09, or 1.7 percent, to $66.41 a barrel on London's ICE

Futures Europe exchange at 1:10 p.m. Singapore time.