Wednesday, November 26, 2008
TECHNICALS FOR NYMEX TRADING
TRADING LEVELS FOR EVENING TRADING
SHORT TERM TREND: BEARISH
LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH
S1 RS 2560 , S2 RS 2500 , S3 RS 2440
R1 RS 2630 , R2 RS 2680 , R3 RS 2740
UPDATES ON NOV 26 2008
SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH
LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH
S1 RS 2530 , S2 RS 2485 , S3 RS 2440
R1 RS 2630 , R2 RS 2680 , R3 RS 2710
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
TECHNICALS FOR NYMEX TRADE
TRADING LEVELS FOR NYMEX EVENING TRADE
SHORT TERM TREND : SIDEWAYS
LONG TERM TREND: BEARISH
S1 RS 2630 , S2 RS 2560 , S3 RS 2500
R1 RS 2730 , R2 RS 2790 , R3 RS 2840
UPDATES ON NOV 25 2008
SHORT TERM TREND : SIDEWAYS
LONG TERM TREND: BEARISH
S1 RS 2685 , S2 RS 2630 , S3 RS 2590
R1 RS 2780 , R2 RS 2825 , R3 RS 2875
Crude oil prices ended higher on Friday as pre
week and short covering and rising equity markets
supported oil prices.
In volatile trading , Crude oil for January delivery
was up 1.03 % to close at $ 49.93 a barrel on the
Nymex.
During last week prices touched a lowest level
since May 2005 on Thursday on sagging equity
markets and a firmer dollar.
More than expected rise in oil inventory also pulled
oil prices lower.
Crude oil prices are expected to remain range bound in
the short term as traders will be awaiting the upcoming
meeting of OPEC.
For MCX contract the immediete and crucial support is seen
at 2490 /2425.
Resistence is seen at Rs 2630 / 2690.
Monday, November 24, 2008
UPDATE ON NOV 24 2008
SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH
LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH
S1 RS 2510 , S2 RS 2475 ,S3 RS 2420
R1 RS 2590 , R2 RS 2640 , R3 RS 2690
SELL AT RESISTENCE.
Prices continued to decline over the week
with the front month WTI contract falling to its
lowest levels since May 2005.
Demand conditions are weak and output cuts
have not yet began to impact.
In the short term prices will be influenced by demand
issues and financial / economic data.
How ever in the new year continued out put cuts
may result in tightening supplies.
Not withsatnading current weakness , far forward
prices continue to stay firm , suggesting that the
market expects prices to stay firm , suggesting
that the market expects prices to improve going
forward.
For MCX Dec contract the immediate and crucial
support is seen at Rs 2500/ 2440 and resistence is
seen at Rs 2620 / 2680.
On intra day basis prices are expected to trade sideways
to down.
Friday, November 21, 2008
UPDATES
MCX DECEMBER CRUDE OIL
SHORT TERM : BEARISH
LONG TERM : BEARISH
SUPPORTS : 2610, 2565, 2523
RESISTANCES : 2710, 2756, 2790
STAY SHORT AT RESISTANCES
Thursday, November 20, 2008
UPDATES
Crude oil fell for a fifth day, approaching $50 a barrel, as
the contracting world economy increases concerns that
demand for fuels will slow.
U.S. fuel use during the past four weeks averaged 19.1 million
barrels a day, down 7 percent from a year ago, an Energy
Department report said yesterday. Equities declined with the
MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropping for a fourth day while the
Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday fell to the lowest
since March 2003.
``The big picture remains one of weak demand, economic concerns
and a falling market,'' said Antoine Halff, head of energy research
at Newedge USA LLC in New York, in an interview with Bloomberg
Television. ``U.S. demand has really been collapsing and dragging
the OECD demand as well and we might end up with a contraction
in global demand growth for the year.''
Crude oil for December delivery fell as much as 97 cents, or
1.8 percent, to $52.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
It was at $52.75 a barrel at 2:36 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday,
futures touched $52.79 a barrel, the lowest since Jan. 23, 2007.
UPDATES
MCX DECEMBER CRUDE OIL
SHORT TERM : BEARISH
LONG TERM : BEARISH
SUPPORTS : 2740, 2685
RESISTANCES : 2840, 2880
STAY SHORT AT RESISTANCES
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
UPDATES ON NOV 18 2008
SHORT TERM TREND : SIDEWAYS
LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH
S1 RS 2820 , S2 RS 2765
R1 RS 2945 , R2 RS 2980
Crude Oil Rises in New York After U.S. Industrial
Output Climbs .
Crude oil rose from a 21-month low after U.S.
industrial production gained, increasing
expectations that fuel demand may improve in the
world's largest consumer.
Crude oil for December delivery rose as much as 44 cents, or
0.8 percent, to $55.39 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. It was at $55.33 a barrel at 12:12 p.m. Singapore
time. Prices have tumbled 63 percent since reaching a record
$147.27 on July 11.
Oil closed yesterday at its lowest since Jan. 29, 2007, after the
economy in Japan, the world's third-biggest oil- consuming
country, contracted 0.4 percent in the third quarter. China
National Petroleum Corp. said yesterday demand has fallen
since September because of credit-market turmoil.
Crude oil stockpiles probably climbed 1 million barrels in the
week ended Nov. 14 from 311.9 million the week before, according
to the median of nine analyst estimates before an Energy
Department report this week.
Brent crude oil for January settlement was at $52.40 a barrel,
up 9 cents, on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange at
12:01 p.m. Singapore time. It declined yesterday $1.93,
or 3.6 percent, to settle at $52.31 a barrel.
Monday, November 17, 2008
UPDATES ON NOV 17 2008
SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH
LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH
S1 RS 2825 , S2 RS 2780
R1 RS 2925 , R2 RS 2975
Crude Oil Falls as Global Slowdown Cuts Demand in China, Japan .
Oil fell for a second day in New York as Japan entered its
first recession since 2001 and China's largest crude
producer said demand has contracted ``sharply.''
Japan's economy contracted 0.4 percent in the September
quarter, official figures today showed. China National
Petroleum Corp., the biggest producer in the world's
second-largest oil consumer, said demand has declined
since September because of the global credit crisis.
OPEC may wait until December to cut output, the
group's president said.
Crude oil for December delivery dropped as much as $1.44, or
2.5 percent, to $55.60 a barrel in after-hours electronic
trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at
$56.08 at 1:20 p.m. in Singapore.
The contract slumped 2.1 percent to settle at $57.04 on
Nov. 14, having touched $54.67 the previous day, the lowest
since Jan. 30, 2007. Prices declined 6.6 percent last week
as world equity markets dropped, Germany entered its
worst recession in 12 years and U.S. retail sales fell for
a fourth straight month.
Japan, the world's second-largest crude importer, had been
expected by economists to avoid recession and record growth
of 0.1 percent in the September quarter. Japan used 5.1 million
barrels a day in 2007, according to the BP Statistical Review of
Energy. China used 7.9 million barrels a day.
Brent crude oil for January settlement dropped as much as
99 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $53.25 a barrel on London's ICE
Futures Europe exchange. It was at $53.89 a barrel at 1:10
p.m. Singapore time. The contract fell 3.6 percent to $54.24
a barrel on Nov. 14.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
UPDATES
Crude oil fell more than $1 a barrel, and gasoline tumbled,
as the global economic slowdown cut demand in the largest
energy-consuming countries.
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., supplier of more than
half the fuel to the Asian nation, is slashing processing rates
by 10 percent from July’s record. U.S. retail sales in October
dropped the most on record and Europe fell into its first recession in 15 years, reports showed today.
“This is a headline-driven market and that’s giving the sellers
plenty of ammunition,” said Peter Beutel, president of energy
consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut.
“Everyone is looking for recessionary numbers. The retail
numbers were even worse than expected.”
Crude oil for December delivery declined $1.20, or 2.1 percent,
to settle at $57.04 a barrel at 2:42 p.m. on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $54.67 yesterday, the
lowest since Jan. 30, 2007. Prices, which have tumbled 61
percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11, declined
6.6 percent this week.
Gasoline for December delivery fell 6.33 cents, or 4.9 percent,
to $1.2391 a gallon in New York, the lowest settlement price
since the contract was introduced in October 2005.
China Petroleum, or Sinopec, will process about 15 million metric
tons a month, or 3.65 million barrels a day, starting in
November, said three refinery officials, who declined to be
named because of internal rules. China is the world’s
second-biggest oil-consuming country.
Falling Sales
Retail sales in the U.S. dropped 2.8 percent in October, the
fourth consecutive drop and the biggest since records began
in 1992, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.
Purchases excluding automobiles also posted their worst
performance. The U.S. consumes 24 percent of the world’s oil.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, supplier
of 40 percent of the world’s oil, is “very likely” to recommend
a production cut at the end of this month, Iran’s OPEC
governor, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, told the country’s state-run
Mehr news agency. Iran is OPEC’s second-biggest oil producer.
OPEC will hold a meeting on Nov. 29 in Cairo, according to a
spokesman at the group’s Vienna headquarters. It will coincide
with a gathering of Arab oil ministers scheduled for that day.
‘Significant Lag’
“OPEC may well announce additional production cuts, but
there will be a significant lag effect, with any cuts coming well
into next year,” said Paul Crovo, a Philadelphia-based oil analyst
with PNC Capital Advisors. Compliance from members may
not be in line with announced reductions, producing a
“muted impact,” he said.
The group decided at a meeting in Vienna last month to lower
the production target for 11 of the group’s members by 1.5
million barrels a day, from 28.8 million barrels a day.
Brent crude oil for January settlement fell $2, or 3.6
percent, to settle at $54.24 a barrel on London’s ICE
Futures Europe exchange.
Friday, November 14, 2008
UPDATES
MCX NOVEMBER CRUDE OIL
SHORT TERM : BEARISH
LONG TERM BEARISH
SUPPORTS : 2865, 2810
RESISTANCES : 2945, 3010
SELL AT RESISTANCES
Thursday, November 13, 2008
UPDATES
MCX NOVEMBER CRUDE OIL
SHORT TERM : BEARISH
LONG TERM : BEARISH
SUPPORTS : 2910, 2865
RESISTANCES : 2975, 3010
SELL AT RESISTANCES
UPDATE
Crude oil fell to the lowest in 21 months on speculation
demand will decline further as the economies of the major
consuming nations contract.
U.S. gasoline purchases dropped 4.2 percent last week, the
29th consecutive week of decline, MasterCard Inc. reported
yesterday. Asian stocks slumped and China's industrial production
grew at the slowest pace in seven years.
Crude oil for December delivery declined as much as $1.13, or 2
percent, to $55.03 a barrel, and traded at $55.54 at 12:03 p.m.
Singapore time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier,
prices fell to $55.03 a barrel, the lowest since Jan. 30, 2007. Futures
have tumbled 62 percent from the record $147.27 on July 11.
Oil has also fallen on speculation that the International Energy
Agency will cut its global demand estimate today and the U.S.
will report that stockpiles gained.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
UPDATES ON NOV 12 2008
SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH
LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH
S1 RS 2842 , S2 RS 2800
R1 RS 2910 , R2 RS 2960
SELL AT RESISTENCE.
Oil Falls to Near 20-Month Low on Outlook for
Slower Demand .
Crude oil fell for a second day in New York, trading near a
20-month low, on speculation the International Energy
Agency will cut its 2009 oil-demand forecast because of
slowing economic growth.
Crude oil for December delivery declined as much as 78 cents,
or 1.3 percent, to $58.55 a barrel in after-hours electronic
trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at
$59.21 a barrel at 12:49 p.m. Singapore time.
Yesterday, oil lost $3.08, or 4.9 percent, to $59.33 a
barrel, the lowest settlement since March 20, 2007,
after earlier dropping as low as $58.32. Prices have
tumbled 60 percent since from a record $147.27
reached on July 11.
The price for oil futures for later delivery has risen against
those closer to immediate delivery, a situation known as
contango. The December 2013 contract has a $24.42
a barrel premium over the 2008 future. A month ago
it was $8.57 a barrel.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said that the credit crunch is
causing crude oil futures to be more expensive for long-
term than immediate delivery.
U.S. crude-oil supplies probably rose for a seventh week
as imports rebounded, a Bloomberg News survey of
analysts showed. Stockpiles probably increased
750,000 barrels in the week ended Nov. 7 from
311.9 million the week before, according to the
median of 12 analyst estimates before an Energy
Department report.
Brent crude oil for December settlement fell as much as'
36 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $55.35 a barrel on London's
ICE Futures Europe exchange and traded at $55.70 at
12:37 p.m. Singapore time. The contract yesterday
dropped $3.37, or 5.7 percent, to close at $55.71 a
barrel, the lowest settlement since Jan. 29, 2007.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
TECHNICALS
MCX NEVEMBER CRUDE OIL
SHORT TERM : BEARISH
LONG TERM : BEARISH
SUPPORTS : 2835, 2756
RESISTANCES : 3025, 3070
SELL AT RESISTANCES
Monday, November 10, 2008
UPDATES
MCX NOVEMBER CRUDE
SHORT TERM : SIDEWAYS
LONGTERM: BEARISH
SUPPORTS : S1 2926, S2 2875
RESISTANCES : R1 3025, R2 3070
WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION
Friday, November 7, 2008
UPDATES
MCX CRUDE OIL NOVEMBER
SHORT TERM : BEARISH
LONG TERM : BEARISH
SUPPORTS ; 2960,, 2856
RESISTANCES ; 3040,, 3140
STAY SHORT AT RESISTANCES
UPDATES
MCXNOVEMBER CRUDE OIL
SUPPORTS : S1 2915, S2 2856
RESISTANCES : R12985, R2 3040
STAY SHORT AT RESISTANCES
Thursday, November 6, 2008
UPDATES ON NOV 6 2008
SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH
LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH
S1 RS 3145 , S2 RS 3085
R1 RS 3230 , R2 RS 3370
STAY SHORT AT RESISTENCE.
Crude Oil Falls a Second Day as U.S. Fuel Consumption Slows .
Crude oil fell for a second day, extending yesterday's more
than 7 percent loss, on signs of slowing fuel demand after
a U.S. Energy Department report showed an unexpected
increase in gasoline inventories.
Gasoline supplies in the world's largest energy user rose
1.12 million barrels to 196.1 million barrels last week, the
report showed. A 650,000-barrel drop was forecast,
according to the median of 14 analysts surveyed by
Bloomberg News. Stockpiles of crude oil and distillate
fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel,
also climbed.
Crude oil for December delivery declined as much as 95 cents, or
1.5 percent, to $64.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. It was at $64.68 a barrel at 12:57 p.m. Singapore
time. Prices, which have tumbled 56 percent since reaching
a record $147.27 on July 11, are down 33 percent from a year
ago. Yesterday, futures plunged $5.23, or 7.4 percent, to
$65.30 a barrel, the biggest drop since Oct. 10.
Crude oil stockpiles climbed 54,000 barrels to 311.9 million
barrels in the week ended Oct. 31, the department said.
A 1 million-barrel gain was forecast. Imports dropped
365,000 barrels to 9.97 million barrels a day. The
department released its weekly report yesterday
in Washington.
Oil has also weakened as refiners' processing profits declined.
The profit from making gasoline in the U.S. was at minus
$5.04 a barrel and has been negative since Sept. 19.
Oil also declined because of concern that the U.S. economy
will continue to contract. Companies in the U.S. cut an
estimated 157,000 jobs in October, the most in almost
six years, a private report based on payroll data
showed yesterday.
The drop was larger than forecast and followed a revised
26,000 decrease in September that was bigger than
previously estimated, ADP Employer Services said.
The decline in employment was the biggest since
November 2002, when the U.S. was emerging from
a recession.
Brent crude oil for December settlement fell as much as 89
cents, or 1.4 percent, to $60.98 a barrel on London's ICE
Futures Europe exchange. It declined $4.57, or 6.9 percent,
to settle at $61.87 a barrel yesterday.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
UPDATES ON NOV 5 2008
SHORT TERM TREND : SIDEWAYS
LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH
S1 RS 3285 , S2 RS 3220
R1 RS 3385 , R2 RS 3460
WAIT FOR SUPPORT FOR FRESH LONGS.
Oil Falls as Investors Judge Gains Excessive; Gold Pares Gains .
Crude oil fell in New York as investors judged yesterday's
10 percent gain as excessive on signs of slowing fuel
demand after U.S. auto sales dropped to their lowest
in 17 years.
Crude oil for December delivery declined as much as $2.08,
or 3 percent, to $68.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. It was at $68.50 a barrel at 1:33 p.m. Singapore
time. Prices, which have tumbled 53 percent since reaching
a record $147.27 on July 11, are down 27 percent from
a year ago.
Futures rose $6.62, or 10 percent, to $70.53 a barrel
yesterday, the highest settlement since Oct. 21. It was
the biggest one-day gain since Sept. 22.
Oil prices were boosted by the biggest presidential- election
day rally in the U.S. stock markets in 24 years and the
fading dollar. The currency was little changed at $1.2870
per euro at 12:17 p.m. Singapore time after declining 2.6
percent yesterday to $1.2966 per euro.
OPEC decided at a meeting in Vienna last month to cut the
production target for 11 of the group's members by 1.5
million barrels a day, from 28.8 million barrels a day.
Brent crude oil for December settlement fell as much as
$2.04, or 3.1 percent, to $64.40 a barrel on London's ICE
Futures Europe exchange. It was at $64.40 a barrel at
1:33 p.m. Singapore time. The contract increased $5.96, or
9.9 percent, to settle at $66.44 a barrel yesterday, the
highest since Oct. 21
Oil inventories probably rose 1 million barrels from 311.9
million barrels in the week ended Oct. 24. Refinery use
probably rose to the highest since August.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
UPDATES ON NOV 4 2008
SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH
LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH
S1 RS 3125 , S2 RS 3065
R1 RS 3215 , R2 RS 3270
STAY SHORT AT RESISTENCE.
Oil Falls as U.S. Manufacturing Contracts, Curbing
Fuel Demand .
Crude oil fell for a second day after a report showed
manufacturing in the U.S. contracted in October at
the fastest pace in 26 years, signaling weaker fuel demand.
Oil has tumbled 57 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel
in July as the U.S. economy shrank in the third quarter by
the most since 2001. U.S. crude inventories probably rose
last week for a sixth week because of declining demand, a
Bloomberg News survey of analysts showed.
Crude oil for December delivery fell as much as 88 cents, or
1.4 percent, to $63.03 a barrel, and traded at $63.32 at
1:16 p.m. Singapore time on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. Prices are down 33 percent from a year ago.
Yesterday, futures lost $3.90, or 5.8 percent, to $63.91
a barrel, the biggest drop since Oct. 22. Oil futures
declined 33 percent in October, a monthly record, amid
a global economic slowdown. The previous record-price
drop was in February 1986.
Brent crude oil for December settlement on London's ICE
Futures Europe exchange fell as much as 88 cents, or 1.5
percent, to $59.60 a barrel. It traded at $59.67 at 1:16 p.m.
Singapore time.
Monday, November 3, 2008
UPDATES ON NOV 3 2008
SHORT TERM TREND : SIDEWAYS
LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH
S1 RS 3275 , S2 RS 3210
R1 RS 3370 , R2 RS 3410
Oil Rises for a Second Day as Interest Rate Cuts to
Spur Growth .
Crude oil rose in New York on signs fuel demand will increase
after the U.S., India and China cut interest rates to prop up
economic growth and amid speculation OPEC will cut
output for a second time by year end.
Oil climbed 5.7 percent last week in the first gain in five
weeks. India on Nov. 1 lowered its benchmark repurchase
rate for the second time in two weeks, following The
People's Bank of China, which cut its key rate on Oct. 29.
OPEC is due to meet in Algeria on Dec. 17.
Crude oil for December delivery gained as much as $1.16,
or 1.7 percent, to $68.97 a barrel in after-hours electronic
trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at
$68.91 a barrel at 1:10 p.m. Singapore time, bringing the
gains in the past two days to 4.5 percent.
Brent crude oil for December settlement gained as much as
$1.09, or 1.7 percent, to $66.41 a barrel on London's ICE
Futures Europe exchange at 1:10 p.m. Singapore time.