CRUDE UPDATE

CRUDE UPDATE FOR 29 AUGUST

CRUDE OIL FUTURES ROSE MORE THAN $ 3 A BARREL

FRIDAY AHEAD OF A HOLIDAY WEEKEND EXPECTED TO

CONCLUDE WITHA MAJOR HURRICANE REACHING A KEY US

ENERGY PRODUCING REGION.CRUDE FOR OCTOBER DELIVERY

WAS UP $ 2.85 OR 2.5% A BARREL AFTER REACHING $ 118.76.

ALL EYES WEREON THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV

WHICH WAS CRAWLING WEST FROM JAMAICA AND APPEARED

ON TRACK TO HIT THE US GULF COAST AS ANINTENSE HURRICANE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORCASTS GUSTAV WILL

LIKELY REACH THE GULF COAST EARLY ON TUESDAY.THE RISK

OF GEO POLITICAL RISKS TO SUPPLY WAS RAISED IN EUROPE

AFTER A REPORT SAID THAT THE KREMLIN HAS ORDERED

RUSSIAN COMPANIES TO PREPARE FOR AN OIL SUPPLY CUT

THROUGH THE DRUZBHA PIPELINE TO EUROPE IN THE COMING

DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A THREAT OF EU SANCTIONS FOR RUSSIA

AND NORTH ATLANTIC TREATY ORGANIZATION NAVAL ACTIONS

IN THE BLACK SEA.

UPDATES ON AUG 29 2008

AUG 29 FRIDAY

SHORT TERM TREND: SIDEWAYS

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

S1 RS 5035 , S2 RS 4970

R1 RS 5135 , R2 RS 5180

MARKET IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SIDEWAYS

Crude oil trades dropped sharply from topping

$ 120 a barrel on uncertainity over the path of

storm Gustav , which continued to move

towards the heart of U.S , offshore production.

Prices had topped $ 120 a barrel but uncertainity

over its path is preventing a rally.

October Crude Futures traded at $ 114.15 a barrel

down $ 4 from Thursdays prices in London.

A new storm system which could threaten east coast

is also being eyed.

The International Energy Agency said it is ready to

coordinate the release of oil stocks from member states

if supplies are sharply disrupted in the U.S Gulf of

Mexico.

UPDATES ON AUG 28 2008

AUG 28 THURSDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : SIDEWAYS

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

S1 RS 5105 , S2 RS 5065

R1 RS 5185 , R2 RS 5240

Crude rose for a third day on Wednesday ,

lifted by the possibility that Tropical Storm

Gustav could become the first major storm

since 2005 to threaten US Gulf oil and gas

installations.

London Brent Crude gained $ 2.31 to $ 116 .94

a barrel.

Oil could head towards last weks three week

high of just $ 112 a barrel in the next few days

depending upon Gustav's path .

Gustav was downgraded into a tropical storm

on Wednesday after it came ashore in Haiti,

but forecasters expect wind speed to regain

Hurricane force as it crosses over warm

waters south of Cuba.

Oil hit a record peak of $ 147.27 on July 11,

propelled by the weak dollar investment inflows

and concerns about the long term supply

outlook.

UPDATES ON AUG 27 2008

AUG 27 WEDNESDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : SIDEWAYS

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

SUPPORT 1 RS 5070, SUPPORT 2 RS 5010

RESISTENCE 1 RS 5160 , RESISTENCE 2 RS 5210

MARKET IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SIDEWAYS

Crude Oil Rises a Third Day on Storm Threat in Gulf of Mexico .

Crude oil rose for a third day in New York as meteorologists

forecast that Tropical Storm Gustav will enter the Gulf

of Mexico, home to more than a fifth of U.S. oil production.

Crude oil for October delivery rose as much as 85 cents,

or 0.7 percent, to $117.12 a barrel on the New York

Mercantile Exchange. It was trading at $116.49 at

2:56 p.m. Singapore time. Prices are up 62 percent

from a year ago.

Futures have dropped 21 percent from a record $147.27

barrel reached on July 11, the highest since trading began

in 1983. Yesterday, oil rose $1.16, or 1 percent, to settle

at $116.27 a barrel.

U.S. crude oil and fuel production plunged and prices rose to

records when hurricanes Katrina and Rita shut refineries

and platforms as they struck the Gulf of Mexico coast in

August and September 2005. Katrina closed 95 percent

of offshore output in the region. Almost 19 percent of U.S.

refining capacity was idled because of damage and

blackouts caused by the hurricanes.

Prices were also supported by Russia's dispute with the

U.S. and European Union on Georgia's breakaway regions

and the possibility that it could lead to supply disruptions.

Russia is the world's second-largest oil producer.

Brent crude oil for October settlement rose as much as 87 cents,

or 0.8 percent, to $115.50 a barrel on London's ICE Futures

Europe exchange. It was at $114.90 a barrel at 2:56 p.m.

Singapore time.

CRUDE UPDATE

CRUDE UPDATE FOR 26 AUGUST, 2008

MCX SEPTEMBER

SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

SUPPORT 1 : RS 4980

SUPPORT 2 : RS.4925

RESISTANCE 1 : RS 5054

RESISTANCE 2 : RS.5088

UPDATES ON AUG 22 2008

AUG 22 FRIDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : BULLISH

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

S1 RS 5215 , S2 RS 5165

R1 RS 5285 , R2 RS 5360

BUY AT RS 5220 TO 5215

STOP LOSS RS 5165

TARGET RS 5285

Oil Heads for Biggest Weekly Gain in Two Months on Dollar Drop .

Crude oil is headed for its biggest weekly increase in more

than two months after rising almost 5 percent yesterday

as the dollar slumped, prompting investors to buy

commodities.

Oil is poised for its first weekly gain in two weeks and its largest

increase since June 6. Energy and metals futures climbed as

the U.S. currency fell the most against the euro in more

than a month.

Crude oil for October delivery was at $121.43 a barrel, down

25 cents, at 11:22 a.m. Singapore time on the New York Mercantile

Exchange. Yesterday, the contract surged $5.62, or 4.9 percent,

to settle at $121.18 a barrel, the biggest increase since June 6.

Futures are down 18 percent from a record $147.27 reached

on July 11. Prices are up 75 percent from a year ago.

Brent crude oil for October settlement was at $120.45 a barrel,

up 29 cents, on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange at 11:21

a.m. Singapore time. It yesterday rose $5.80, or 5.1 percent, to

settle at $120.16 a barrel.

The dollar traded at $1.4866 per euro at 11:24 a.m. in Singapore.

It dropped 1 percent yesterday and touched $1.4903, the

weakest level since Aug. 14 and the biggest fall since June.

The dollar has risen 4.8 percent versus the euro in August,

which would be the biggest monthly gain since May 2001.

Poland signed an agreement on Aug. 20 with the U.S. to

host an American anti-missle base and to provide aid to

bolster the country's air defenses. Russia has warned the

move will lead to a new arms race in Europe and is

reconsidering its ties with the North Atlantic Treaty

Organization.
Russia has defied calls by U.S. President George W. Bush and

other Western leaders for an immediate withdrawal from

Georgia since a cease-fire agreement last week ended five

days of fighting.

The Baku-Supsa pipeline, which pumps more than 100,000

barrels of oil a day from Azerbaijan to the Georgian port of

Supsa on the Black Sea coast, is still shut on security

concerns following fighting between Georgian and

Russian troops.

UPDATES ON AUG 21 2008

AUG 21 THURSDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

S1 RS 4940, S2 RS 4880

R1 RS 5015 , R2 RS 5056

SELL AT RS 5010 TO 5015

STOP LOSS RS 5056

TARGET RS 4940

Oil Gains a Third Day on U.S.-Russia Tensions, Gasoline Supply .

Crude oil rose for a third day in New York on concerns

that Russian and Caspian Sea supplies may be disrupted

after the U.S. agreed yesterday to construct a missile-

defense system in Poland.

Crude oil for October delivery rose as much as $1.14, or 1

percent, to $116.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile

Exchange and was trading at $116.34 at 12:43 p.m. in

Singapore. Futures are down 21 percent from a record

$147.27 on July 11. Prices are up 68 percent from a

year ago.

The September contract expired yesterday after increasing

45 cents, or 0.4 percent, to settle at $114.98 a barrel.

Georgian Black Sea ports are running out of crude and oil-

products to export as Russian troops block railways, a

shipping agent in Batumi said yesterday. BP Plc's Baku-

Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and the Baku-Supsa system that

run through the country remain closed. They are

capable of carrying a combined 1.1 million barrels

a day.

Brent crude oil for October settlement rose as much as

89 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $115.25 a barrel on London's

ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $115.16 a

barrel at 12:36 p.m. Singapore time. It rose $1.11,

or 1 percent, to $114.36 a barrel yesterday.

Analysts had predicted a 3 million-barrel decline in

gasoline stocks in the U.S., according to a Bloomberg

survey.

Oil stockpiles rose 9.39 million barrels to 305.9 million

barrels, the biggest gain since March 2001.

UPDATES ON AUG 20 2008

AUG 20 WEDNESDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : SIDEWAYS

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

S1 RS 4945 , S2 RS 4900

R1 RS 5050 , R2 RS 5110

WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION

Oil Rises a Second Day on Dollar Drop, Gasoline Supply Forecast .

Crude oil rose for a second day as a weakening dollar

prompted investors to buy commodities as an

inflation hedge.

Oil rebounded as the dollar fell against the euro from its

highest level since Feb. 20. Prices had declined in the

previous three trading sessions before yesterday,

reaching $112.87 a barrel on Aug. 18, the lowest

close since May 1. Crude also gained on forecasts a

government report today will show a fourth weekly

decline in U.S. gasoline stockpiles.

Crude oil for September delivery rose as much as 83 cents, or

0.7 percent, to $115.36 a barrel on the New York Mercantile

Exchange and was at $115.06 at 1:05 p.m. Singapore time.

Futures touched a 15-week low of $111.34 a barrel on

Aug. 15. Prices are up 62 percent from a year ago.

Yesterday, futures gained $1.66, or 1.5 percent,

to settle at $114.53 a barrel.

The September oil contract expires at the close of Nymex

trading today. The more-active October contract gained

as much as 84 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $115.38 a barrel.

It was at $115.07 a barrel at 1:04 p.m. Singapore time.

The U.S. Dollar Index in New York, which tracks the

currency against six others, fell for a third day after

rising to its highest since January last week. The index,

traded on ICE Futures in New York, was down 0.1

percent to 76.742.

Brent crude oil for October settlement rose as much as 90

cents, or 0.8 percent, to $114.15 a barrel on London's ICE

Futures Europe exchange. It was at $113.70 a barrel at

12:59 p.m. Singapore time. The contract yesterday

increased $1.31, or 1.2 percent, to settle at $113.25

a barrel.

UPDATES ON AUG 19 2008

AUG 19 TUESDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH

LONG TERM TREND : BEARISH

S1 RS 4910, S2 RS 4860

R1 RS 4980, R2 RS 5035

Crude Oil Falls a Fourth Day as Storm May Miss U.S. Gulf Fields .

Crude oil fell for a fourth day in New York on forecasts

Tropical Storm Fay will miss rigs and platforms in the

Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for about a fifth of

U.S. production.

Crude oil for September delivery fell as much as $1.11, or 1 percent,

to $111.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and

traded at $112.02 at 12:11 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday,

the contract dropped 90 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at

$112.87 a barrel. Futures touched $111.34 a barrel on Aug. 15,

a 15-week low. Prices are up 57 percent from a year ago.

Prices have declined 23 percent from the record $147.27 a barrel

reached on July 11 as the dollar rose for a fifth week against the

euro and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

warned of risks to demand from slower global growth.

U.S. crude-oil inventories probably increased last week as

shipments arrive that were delayed by Tropical Storm

Edouard, a Bloomberg News survey of analysts showed.

Inventories of crude oil probably rose 1 million barrels in the

week ended Aug. 15 from 296.5 million, according to the

median of responses by seven analysts before an Energy

Department report this week. Five forecast an increase

and two said there was a decline.

Brent crude oil for October settlement fell as much as 94 cents,

or 0.8 percent, to $111 a barrel on London's ICE Futures

Europe exchange. It was at $111.15 a barrel at 12:05 p.m.

Singapore time. The contract declined 61 cents, or

0.5 percent, to close at $111.94 a barrel yesterday.

UPDATES ON AUG 14 2008

AUG 14 THURSDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : BULLISH : TARGET RS 5135

LONG TERM TREND : BULLISH : TARGET RS 5260

S1 RS 4985 , S2 RS 4946 , S3 RS 4910

R1 RS 5064 , R2 RS 5095 ,R3 RS 5135

PREFER INTRA DAY LONG AT RS 4985 TO 4980

STOP LOSS RS 4945

TARGET RS 5064

Crude Oil Rises a Second Day on Lower U.S. Gasoline Supplies .

Crude oil rose for a second day after a U.S. Energy Department

report yesterday showed a bigger-than- forecast decline in

inventories of gasoline as refiners shut units and imports fell.

Crude oil for September delivery rose as much as 96 cents, or

0.8 percent, to $116.96 a barrel and was at $116.85 at 12:55 p.m.

Singapore time on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

U.S. gasoline stockpiles were forecast to drop 2.15 million

barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Oil prices

fell 5.8 percent in the previous three days to yesterday's session.

Inventories of crude oil fell 316,000 barrels to 296.5 million, the

department said. Supplies were forecast to rise 300,000 barrels,

according to the median of responses by 13 analysts surveyed

by Bloomberg News.

Brent crude oil for September settlement rose as much as 94 cents,

or 0.8 percent, to $114.41 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe

exchange. The contract was at $114.20 a barrel at 12:52 p.m.

Singapore time. It climbed $2.32, or 2.1 percent, to settle at

$113.47 a barrel yesterday. Futures touched $110.47 on

Aug. 12, the lowest since May 2. The contract expires today.

The more-active October future gained as much as 90 cents,

0.8 percent, to $115.75 as barrel.

AUG 13 WEDNESDAY

FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES

The International Energy Agency said on Tuesday

that the tight global oil and supply balance that has

driven crude prices to record highs this year is easing,

but cautioned that healthy oil consumption in China and

geopolitical factors still threatened to tighten market conditions

in coming months.

With U.S and European consumers reducing consumption

and the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and

other producers pumping more crude , oil prices have eased

more than 20 % since topping a record of $ 147 a Barrell in July ,

the IEA said in its oil market report.

U.S oil prices traded $ 1 a barrel lower at $ 113.50 a barrel

at 0900 GMT Tuesday.

"In terms of oil fundamentals , crude abd product supply

tightness has eased ," the IEA said while adding that the

global oil market still faced many challenges.

IEA supply Analyst Mr David Fyfe said that supply

uncertainy will continue .He was referring to the oil

puipe line blast in Turkey last week that shut at least

500000 barrels a day of production and to recent fighting

between Russia and Georgia .

Chinese consumption which is seen growing by 5.6 %

in 2008 and 5.7 % next year , is essentially unchanged from

the IEA report last month.

China is the world's second biggest consumer after the

U.S but uses just about one third the amount of crude as U.S

where consumption is expected to fall 3.1 % this year , and

2 % in 2009.

The IEA thinks Chinese oil demand could rebound after the

Olympic Games in Beijing.

For the duration of the competition , the Chinese Government

has closed hundreds of factories and ordered more than 1

million vehicles off Beijings road to cut pollution.

Some Analyst dont think so , arguing that China has built up

a bounty of oil stocks ahead of the Olympics and that those

inventoties will keep a clamp on demand even after the games.

Despite easing demand, oil inventories in large consuming nations

like the U.S haven't swelled far above normal levels to threaten

sharper lower crude prices.

Inventories are a key metric closely watched by OPEC in

setting its production policy.

UPDATES ON AUG 13 2008

AUG 13 WEDNESDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH : TARGET RS 4740

LONG TERM TREND : BULLISH : TARGET RS 5260

S1 RS 4810 , S2 RS 4765 , S3 RS 4730

R1 RS 4885 , R2 RS 4920 , R3 RS 4960

PREFER SHORT AT RS 4880 TO 4885

STOP LOSS RS 4920

TARGET RS 4820

Oil Trades Near 14-Week Low on Signs of Slowing Fuel Demand .

Crude oil traded near the lowest in 14 weeks on speculation that

a U.S. government report today will show refiners cut output,

signaling a drop in demand in the world's largest energy

consumer.

Crude oil for September delivery was at $113.32 a barrel, up

31 cents, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York

Mercantile Exchange at 12:34 p.m. Singapore time.

Yesterday, futures lost $1.44, or 1.3 percent, to settle at

$113.01 a barrel, the lowest close since May .

Oil has slipped 23 percent from a record $147.27 on July 11.

Prices are still 58 percent higher than a year earlier.

Most energy and metals futures dropped yesterday as the

U.S. dollar rose to a 5 1/2-month high versus the euro,

weakening the appeal of commodities as a hedge

against inflation.

Brent crude oil for September settlement was at $111.22 a barrel,

up 7 cents, on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange at 12:06 p.m.

Singapore time. It dropped $1.52, or 1.4 percent, to settle at

$111.15 a barrel yesterday, the lowest since May 1. The

contract expires tomorrow.

The more active October future was at $112.52 a barrel, up


2 cents, at 12:21 p.m. Singapore time.

Crude prices also fell because so-called long positions, or

traders that have bought futures, declined, said

ANZ's Pervan.

The open interest, or the number of contracts that haven't

been closed, liquidated, or delivered, for Nymex oil has

dropped 2.6 percent to 1.24 million contracts today

versus 1.27 million on Aug. 6.

Speculative short positions, or bets that prices will fall,

outnumbered long positions by 5,550 contracts on the

New York Mercantile Exchange in the week ended Aug. 5,

the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said in its

Commitments of Traders report on Aug. 8. Net-short

positions rose by 4,890 contracts, or 741 percent, from

a week earlier.

UPDATES ON AUG 12 2008

AUG 12 TUESDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH : TARGET RS 4670

LONG TERM TREND : BULLISH : TARGET RS 5260

S1 RS 4735, S2 RS 4700, S3 RS 4670

R1 RS 4794, R2 RS 4820, R3 RS 4856

PREFER SHORT AT RS 4790 TO 4795

STOP LOSS RS 4820

TARGET RS 4735

Oil Falls for a Third Day as Economic Slowdown May Cut Demand .

Crude oil fell for a third day on signs that a U.S. economic

slump will extend into 2009, paring fuel demand in the

world's biggest oil consumer.

Crude oil for September delivery fell as much as $1.16, or 1 percent,

to $113.29 a barrel, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York

Mercantile Exchange. It was at $113.42 a barrel at 2:11 p.m.

Singapore time.

Yesterday, futures fell 75 cents, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $114.45 a

barrel, the lowest close since May 1. Oil has declined 23 percent

from the record $147.27 reached on July 11.

Prices are also down as the dollar gained on speculation the economic

slowdown that started in the U.S. is spreading. The dollar traded at

$1.4872 against the euro at 10:23 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4909


yesterday.

Prices rose in early trading yesterday as five days of clashes between

Russia and Georgia threatened alternative export routes from Azerbaijan,

needed because of a pipeline fire.

Brent crude oil for September settlement fell as much as $1.29, or

1.1 percent, to $111.38 a barrel on London's ICE Futures

Europe exchange. It was at $111.46 a barrel at 2:12 p.m.

Singapore time. It declined 66 cents, or 0.6 percent, to settle at

$112.67 a barrel yesterday, the lowest close since May 1.

UPDATES ON AUG 11 2008

AUG 11 MONDAY

Crude Oil Rises on Excessive Drop, Supply Threat in Caspian Sea .

Crude oil rose from a 14-week low in New York as traders

deemed last week's 7.9 percent drop as excessive and the

Russia-Georgia conflict raised concern that Caspian Sea

supplies may be disrupted.

Crude oil for September delivery gained as much as $1.54, or

1.3 percent, to $116.74 a barrel in electronic trading on the

New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $116.38 at

12:46 p.m. in Singapore. Oil settled at $115.20 on Aug. 8,

the lowest close since May 1.

Futures have fallen 21 percent from the record $147.27 a barrel

reached on July 11.

Brent crude for September settlement rose as much as $1.47, or

1.3 percent, to $114.80 on the ICE Futures Europe exchange,

and traded at $114.70 at 12:37 p.m. Singapore time.

Nymex crude traded at a premium of $1.68 a barrel to Brent

crude oil, compared with 59 cents a month earlier.

New York oil futures fell 4 percent to settle at $115.20 on Aug. 8,

as gains in the dollar reduced the investment appeal of commodities.

Gold, copper and grains also fell as weaker growth prospects in

Europe reduced the likelihood of rate increases there and

delivered the dollar its biggest gain against the euro

since September, 2001.

The euro slumped to a five-month low against the dollar today, and

traded at $1.4986 at 1:02 p.m. in Tokyo, from $1.5005 late

Aug. 8 in New York.

New York oil futures traded as low as $114.62 on Aug. 8, dropping

below the $116.76 level that marks a 50 percent retracement

of the climb in prices from February to July's record

$147.27 a barrel.

UPDATES ON AUG 8 2008

AUG 8 FRIDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH : TARGET RS 4930

LONG TERM TREND :BULLISH : TARGET RS 6460

S1 RS 4970, S2 RS 4930, S3 RS 4880

R1 RS 5025, R2 RS 5070, R3 RS 5110

PREFER SHORT AT RS 5025 TO 5030

STOP LOSS RS 5070

TARGET RS 4960

Oil Heads for Weekly Decline as Demand Slows, Dollar Gains .

Crude oil headed for its fourth decline in five weeks as

demand fell and the dollar gained, reducing the appeal of

commodities as an inflation hedge.

Fuel consumption in the U.S., the world's biggest energy consumer,

dropped 2.6 percent in the four weeks to Aug. 1 from a year

ago, according to Energy Department data. New York crude

futures have fallen 19 percent from a record $147.27 a

barrel on July 11 as an economic slowdown made

motorists drive less.

Crude oil for September delivery fell as much as 52 cents, or

0.4 percent, to $119.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile

Exchange, and traded at $119.58 at 12:41 p.m. Singapore time.

Price have fallen 4.4 percent this week.

Yesterday, oil rose $1.44, or 1.2 percent, to settle at $120.02 a

barrel in New York. Futures dropped to $117.11 a barrel this

week after U.S. inventories unexpectedly increased.

That's more than 20 percent below the record $147.27 on

July 11, a threshold commonly seen as the start of a bear

market.

Brent crude for September settlement fell as much as 39 cents, or

0.3 percent, to $117.47 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe

exchange. Yesterday, it gained 86 cents, or 0.7 percent, to settle

at $117.86 a barrel yesterday.

Crude-oil supplies rose 1.61 million barrels, or 0.6 percent, last week,

the U.S. Energy Department said on Aug. 6. Gasoline supplies fell

4.34 million barrels, or 2 percent, to 209.2 million barrels, the

biggest drop since April.

UPDATES ON AUG 6 2008

AUG 6 WEDNESDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH : TARGET RS 4945

LONG TERM TREND : BULLISH: TARGET RS 6460

S1 RS 5010, S2 RS 4960, S3 RS 4910

R1 RS 5080, R2 RS 5110, R3 RS 5180

Crude Oil Falls a Third Day as Slowing Economies May Cut Demand .

Crude oil fell for a third day in New York, trading near $118 a

barrel on concern slowing economic growth in the U.S. and

Europe will curb fuel consumption.

Oil dropped to its lowest level since early May as the services

industries in the U.S. and Europe shrank for a second straight

month in July. China's economy grew at the slowest pace since

2005 in the second quarter and manufacturing in July

contracted for the first time since a survey began in 2005.

Crude oil for September delivery fell as much as $1.07, or

0.9 percent, to $118.10 a barrel in electronic trading on the

New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $118.33 at

12:17 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, oil fell $2.24, or 1.8

percent, to settle at $119.17 a barrel in New York. Earlier,

it touched $118, the lowest since May 5.

Oil has lost more than $28 since touching a record $147.27 a

barrel in New York on July 11 as unprecedented fuel costs

prompted U.S. consumers to limit spending.

Oil has also fallen as its appeal as an inflation hedge has been

curbed by gains in the dollar against the euro and yen.

The dollar traded near a seven-week high against the euro,

and was near its highest versus the yen in more than a

month. U.S. Federal Reserve policy makers left interest

rates unchanged yesterday amid weak economic growth.

UPDATES ON AUG 5 2008

AUG 5 TUESDAY

SHORT TERM TREND : BEARISH :l TARGET RS 5045

LONG TERM TREND : BULLISH : TARGET RS 6460

S1 RS 5085, S2 RS 5047, S3 RS 5010

R1 RS 5165, R2 RS 5205, R3 RS 5248

Crude Oil Falls to Three-Month Low as Storm to Miss U.S. Fields .

Crude oil fell to a three-month low as meteorologists forecast

Tropical Storm Edouard will miss most offshore production

facilities in the U.S. Gulf Coast while approaching Texas.

Oil dropped 3 percent yesterday as Edouard's wind speed

eased concern that offshore and platforms would be

damaged by the storm.

Crude oil for September delivery fell as much as $1.20, or

1 percent, to $120.21 a barrel in electronic trading on the

New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $120.37 at

12:32 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, crude oil dropped

$3.69 to settle at $121.41 a barrel in New York,

the lowest close since May 5.

Oil had reached a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11

because of a weaker dollar and concern supply from

Nigeria and the Middle East may be disrupted.

AUG 3 2008

AUG 3 SUNDAY

CRUDE MAY DROP BELOW $ 100 .

Crude oil prices may fall below 100 $ a barrel in the

coming months after the market reached a point

that has choked demand .

" For the first time probably in seven to eight years

we're predicting oil prices will actually go lower .

There's a possibility that the high oil prices that

we've seen this year will not be expected next year ."

Mr Phil Flynn Vice President and Energy Analyst

with Alaron Trading Corp , told a commodities

outlook meeting at the Chicago Board of Trade,

a CME Group unit.

" Look for oil to get down to double digits , back

near $ 99 a barrel : Mr Flynn said, baring any unforseen

natural disasters like Hurricane that could temporarily

affect supply.

Nymex December Crude oil was down $ 2.52 at $ 123.57

a barrel on Tuesday , down from a record of $ 148.60

set on july 11.

He also forecast retail gasoline prices could fall more

than $ 1 per gallon to about $ 2 and heating oil futures

slip to $ 2.20 a gallon from current levels.

Crude oil has been the leader of the commodities

sector as investors flocked to oil, metals

and grains as a hedge against inflation

and the weak U.S economic outlook.

Commodities have outperformed stocks and

bonds over the past year , with indices

rising to record high in 2008. Despite the

weak U.S economy and mushrooming financial

market crisis, intrest in commodities continue to

be rooted in bullish fundamentals : a weak dollar,

Asian demand for food and raw materials and a

legislated boom in biofuels.


At least in the case of crude oil , however ,

escalating prices appears to be trimming demand,

Mr Flynn said.

The U.S Transportation Department on Monday

reported a steep drop in high way miles driven in

May , by a record of 3.7 %.The 9.6 billion miles less

travelled was the biggest drop ever for any May ,

when traffic usually rises due to Memorial day

holiday and the beginning of summer vacations.

Mr Flynn also noted that Chinese utilities are exporting

oil for the first time in seven years after switching to

coal as an energy source to avoid high oil prices.